Looking Realistically at Your Net Recruiting Results
Good news, Coach: You may not being doing as badly as you think you are
I know sometimes I can come off as Mr. Worst Case Scenario, but cut me some slack.
I’ve heard enough horror stories, and seen enough prospects and their parents be untruthful to coaches who are recruiting them, that have resulted in recruiting disasters for three lifetimes. That’s why I’ve adopted a very real world, the-glass-is-half-empty-and-probably-leaking approach to the way college coaches build their rosters through recruiting. I’m always, always, ALWAYS focused on what could go wrong (or what did go wrong)…(and you should be, too).
Having said that, sometimes coaches are too hard on themselves.
Case in point: Yesterday, a smart, talented, hard working Division I coach at a BCS conference program who is a client and an avid reader of our Honey Badger Recruiting training emails, called with some concerns. (I mention she is smart, talented, and hard working because she is, and also because I know she’s going to read this, by the way).
Her primary worry: After engaging in communication that recruits said they loved, setting a fair but firm timeline, and asking for a commitment, she was 2 for 7, with another prospect still undecided. She needs to get four for her class of 2022, and while she knows the program will meet that goal, she was worried about her net recruiting results after a lot of effort and work with these top-level, scholarship worthy kids in her sport.
My reaction on the phone with her yesterday? She’s getting very realistic results.
Wait…just 2 for 7 is realistic? After all that??
Yes.
Remember that we’re talking about a group of top recruits who are actively getting recruited by other similar high level program. They have options, and it’s unrealistic to think that all or most of them will choose your program. I wish that wasn’t the case, but it is. Furthermore, do you know how many programs will go 0 for 7 with their group of top prospects? I would say the majority will, year in and year out (which is why there is 30%+ coaching staff turnover year after year in college athletics, unfortunately).
We know that 2 for 7 number is accurate because in our live on-campus recruiting workshop exercises we take athletic departments and coaching staffs through, coaches who ask for commitments consistently - across sports and division levels - average a 30% ‘yes’ rate when they ask. In other words, asking ten recruited prospects to commit the way we’ve trained you to do results in 30% of them saying yes immediately, or at your defined deadline. For those who say ‘not yet’, which are another 30%, half of that group ends up saying ‘yes’, resulting in a net success rate of 45%. Not bad, really, if you’re doing it all the right way, according to the research and what they athletes have taught us about how they want to be asked. Those of you who have had us on campus and gone through the process know what we’re talking about - in fact, many of you have had better numbers than what I’m quoting here, so you know the process works.
Back to the coach who asked the question:
Right now, if the results stayed as they are with this top group of recruited athletes, her net results would be just under 30%, which is close to the target we see being averaged nationally. If the third athlete becomes a yes, which is highly likely, that would take the net results up close to a 40% success rate. If they land an international recruit that another staff member is working to get a commitment from, we end up with a net overall recruiting result of 44.4%, or, right around the national average.
“But, Dan…I need 15 commitments in each class in my sport. Don’t I need to be closing at a higher success rate to meet that goal?”
No. You need to add more recruits at the start of the cycle.
If I am a coach who needed 15 commits in a class, using the same math, I would need to actively be recruiting 33 prospects. Actively recruiting…not just on your list, but in active communication with over a period of time. That might mean you need to start with 60 or 70 recruits on your list to begin contacting to end up with the 33 you need to be seriously talking to, to get to the 15 who will end up committing to compete for you and your program.
It’s unrealistic to focus on 15 recruits, stop all other recruiting, and hope to get those 15 recruits to say yes to meet your goal. I’ve never seen it happen, and I doubt I ever will. Saban, Auriemma, Wooden and other consistent college coaches who have built winning dynasties on their campus never go 15 for 15, so why should you expect to? You shouldn’t.
Recruiting is hard work, but consistency and approaching it all the right way can yield the results that will build a winner. And applying this research and historical averages may be the missing part of the equation. Who knows, you - like the coach we work with who called in frustrated yesterday - may be doing better than you realize!
Questions? I’d love to talk. Email me at dan@dantudor.com, let me know what your situation is, and how we might be able to help or give direction.